Archive for the ‘Mobile App Dev’ Category

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Here We Go Again

Monday, February 15th, 2010

lots-of-phonesTwenty-four wireless telecommunications companies united to announce the Wholesale Applications Community at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona.  Gizmodo has a good overview of the announcement on one of its blogs.  The concept sounds great on the surface, but I am less than enthusiastic they will have any meaningful success.

They are attempting to solve a worthy problem. Every mobile application developer faces a huge hill to climb every time they want to develop a new application.  If you want to write a piece of software that will run on most of the smartphones out there so you have a large market, here is what you have to do:

  • Design the application
  • If you want to develop for the iPhone:
    1. Download the Software Developer’s Kit
    2. Write the application
    3. Test the application
    4. Sign up as a developer on the App Store
    5. Pay your fee
    6. Agree to all the contractual obligations
    7. Submit you application for approval
    8. Wait, wait, and then wait some more
    9. Celebrate when your application is finally approved
    10. Hopefully begin selling your software
  • If you want to develop for the BlackBerry, repeat steps 1-10 above
  • If you want to develop for Android, repeat steps 1-10 above
  • I could go on, but I think you get the idea

Conceptually what the Wholesale Applications Community wants to do is great. They want to make an environment where a developer can write a piece of software once, and then be able to port (technical term for copy) the application to multiple other types of phones on multiple other carriers (Verizon, Sprint, etc.).  They also want the developer to not have to deal with multiple app stores from multiple device makers.  Sounds great, right?

Problem is, it won’t work. If you know me personally, you would know that I am a very optimistic person. So why do I think this is a lost cause. Because it has been tried before in many situations other than mobile applications, and it has always failed.  There are many reasons for this, but here are my top three for this specific instance:

  1. Even though you provide a common software development environment, by definition it must support devices with a least common denominator approach. As soon as a device maker offers, and a developer takes advantage of, a unique feature on a specific device, the application is no longer portable to other devices.
  2. Apple, BlackBerry, and Google already have pretty well established App Stores. Introducing a new app store alternative will be pretty difficult, even if it helps the developer community. Let’s face it, there are technology bigots who are in love with devices from a specific maker, and they are very unlikely to be open to trying other environments.
  3. Look at who is missing from the list of supporters for this effort. No Apple. No BlackBerry (RIM for you industry folks). No Google. No Microsoft. Nuff said.

Once you have been around information technology for a while, you see trends repeat themselves over an over. The whole concept of a common development environment has been attempted many times. It really started common programming languages like FORTRAN, and with Operating Systems like Unix.  The idea of a common app store married with a common development environment is just a different spin on the same theme.  I get why they are doing it. I just don’t think it will succeed.

Remember, this is just my opinion, and your mileage may vary.

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Mobile Market Changes

Wednesday, February 10th, 2010

Well, it’s been a while since I posted, but that’s not because nothing has been going on in the mobile world (was that a double or triple negative?). There continue to be changes in device popularity and availability which is having an impact on the smartphone market. For instance, back in September of last year Android was just beginning to gain traction with a couple of Android phones and about 8,000 applications in the Android Market.  The only mobile device Apple made was the iPhone.  And most of us would not have had a clue as to what AT&T and Verizon’s 3G coverage maps looked like.

Today there are about 25,000 apps in the Android Market, and there are several Android phones available, including one from Google itself. Apple just recently announced the iPad (insert your favorite product name joke here), which is truly a mobile device. It’s relatively small and light, and supports not just WiFi, but also cellular data connections. And we are all probably sick of seeing the coverage map wars between AT&T and Verizon, though some of the commercials have been pretty creative.

smartphone_1209As the industry continues to evolve, it would be a good idea to remember that the more things stay the same, the more they change. Actually I think the phrase goes the other way around, but stating it this way suits my purposes for this post. ComScore just recently released a report showing the US smartphone marketshare by operating system. Ars Technica was kind enough to put together the chart you see to the left.

There are several things about this chart that are interesting. Two items come to mind with regards to the iPhone. First of all, we all have come to accept that Apple is a huge player in the mobile market. The thing I think that bears remembering is that three years ago the iPhone had just been announced, but had not yet appeared in the market. That wouldn’t even happen till the end of June in 2007. Now look at it. Three years later and it has 25% market share for smartphones in the US.

The second item about the iPhone that is interesting is that even for all of it’s success, it is still dwarfed by BlackBerry (RIM for those of you in the industry). BlackBerry is still king, and though it has lost some ground to other players, Apple still has a long way to go to catch them.  For people developing software, this is an important point. Apple has gotten a ton of traction in the application world, but developing a great app for BlackBerry opens up a huge market to developers.

The third item I wanted to point out in this chart was Android. Listed in the chart as Google (because they are the force behind Android), it has made amazing strides since September. For the better part of a calendar year, there was only one Android phone available. It was the G1. It was available only on T-Mobile, and let’s face it…the phone wasn’t very good. Now several big players such as HTC and Motorola have multiple Android phones, and Google even has one. As a result of this push, Android market share has doubled in just 4 months. I’ll go out on a limb and say you should look for this to continue.

I hadn’t posted in several months before today. And look at what has happened in the market in that time. It’s only going to continue to accelerate. So strap on your helmet, and fasten your seat belt. It’s going to continue to be a wild ride.

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It’s Getting Crowded in Here

Tuesday, September 15th, 2009

imagesThe last couple of weeks have been interesting in the world of smart phones.  Motorola/T-Mobile, HTC/Sprint, and LG have all announced the upcoming release of new Android smart phones.  If you don’t know much about Android, that’s not surprising. It is a smart phone operating system announced with a lot of fanfare quite a while back. It is backed by Google, and supported by several large wireless industry players.  The idea is to provide a platform that will run on a lot of different phones, from different manufacturers, and different carriers, making it easier for developers to write software that will support a wide variety of users.

The problem to date has been that you could get any Android phone you wanted as long as it was the G1 from T-Mobile. Yep that’s right.  For all the hoopla, there has been only one Android phone on the market since Android was introduced.  Even with that huge limitation, the Android Market (their version of an App Store) now has about 10,000 applications on it.  The availability of more phones should provide additional momentum to encourage more developers to jump on the Android bandwagon.

The market trends with mobile applications are truly staggering.  Consider for a moment that just a little over one year ago there was not a single app store out there.  Sure, there were some smart phone catalogs, but they were mainly used by techies, and there was no way an average person could easily get access to software for their phone.  Enter Apple, and the App Store.  Since its introduction last summer there has been a proliferation of applications for smart devices. In addition to the 70,000+ for iPhones, and the 10,000+ for Android, there are a projected 20,000+ for Windows Mobile, a few thousand on BlackBerry App World, and a rapidly growing number of applications for the new Palm Pre and Pixi.

What does this all mean for us users?  It means that we are being presented with a rapidly growing number of software choices for our phones.  And more choices means more functionality.  More functionality means more usefulness.  More usefulness means more use.  The way we use our smart phones is growing rapidly, as is the amount of time we spend on them.  They are becoming our main vehicle of communications and “computing” at a rate that makes the evolution of PC and software look like it occured over eons.

We are rapidly being presented with many choices of software which make our phones more useful devices.  And that’s a good thing not only for consumers, but also for businesses.

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Another App Store?

Wednesday, September 2nd, 2009

According to a press release yesterday, Microsoft has finally driven a stake in the ground and will be delivering new phones with Windows Mobile 6.5, as well as the Windows Mobilewinmo-65Marketplace on October 6th.  Windows Mobile 6.5 is the newest version of the Windows operating systems for smartphones and related devices that has been promised since very early this year.

If you take a look at what Microsoft is doing with this launch, it is pretty aggressive.  In North America alone, it will be released on the 3 largest carriers in the US, along with about half a dozen device manufacturers.  Pretty impressive, and definitely a non-trivial undertaking.  But probably the most interesting thing coming in the announcement is the launch of the new Windows Mobile Marketplace.

It’s hard to realize that with almost 65,000 titles online today, Apple just launched the App Store a year ago July.  That’s right.  It’s only been a year, and now all new devices are being judged as to whether or not they have a good app store.  One of the few criticisms I continually read about the Palm Pre is that there are very few applications for it.  I say that not to throw rocks at Palm, but to illustrate how much the market now demands applications for smart phones.

What makes Windows Mobile Marketplace so interesting is that Microsoft has a ready made set of applications for Windows Mobile devices already.  Estimates put the number of Windows Mobile applications at about 20,000.  More interesting is the fact many of these applications run on more rugged devices from Intermec and Symbol.  By definition many of the applications are business oriented vs. consumer oriented.  The App Store is extremely consumer oriented.  It will be interesting to see how Microsoft’s entry into the environment changes things.  I think they may have enough critical mass to swing the pendulum at least somewhat toward business applications.

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Smartphone Shootout

Friday, June 12th, 2009

pre-and-iphoneWell, it’s finally here.  Palm launched the Pre last Saturday, and they are now finally in direct competition with Apple and the iPhone.  So which one’s better?  For me, I think the verdict is still out.

By now, unless you live under a rock somewhere, I’m sure you know how successful the iPhone has been.  They have sold millions of devices in the two years the phone has been out, and users have downloaded over 1 billion applications in the year since the App Store was available.  Apple also broke a lot of long standing rules in the cellular industry by having the phone activated through iTunes instead of directly with AT&T, and also by funneling users through iTunes for content instead of through AT&T.  The iPhone was also ground breaking in that it introduced the concept of using gestures via a touch screen to interact with the device.  What they have accomplished is truly amazing.

Don’t count out Palm just yet.  Palm has traditionally been very strong with “prosumers”.  This is a term they coined to talk about their sweet spot in terms of users.  The demographic Palm originally catered to with the Treo was professional people who purchased their own devices and used it both for work and personal purposes.  Add to that the fact that they pioneered the whole smartphone segment 5 years ago, and you have a pretty accomplished competitor for Apple.  The new Pre has a slick little physical keyboard, a very nice touch screen, and a gesture base user interface.  Sprint says the Pre broke all of their sales records for new devices.  Sounds kind of like the iPhone, doesn’t it?

I think the real battle is still to come.  WebOS has some very interesting capabilities with it’s application platform.  It allows applications to integrate with the web, on device information, and across applications.  Of course there aren’t many applications on the device yet.  It will be interesting to see what developers come up with on the Pre.  Part of what has made the iPhone successful is the slew of applications that have been introduced by developers outside of Apple.  I’ll be curious to see how many, and what types of applications get introduced for the Pre.

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No Microsoft Smartphone Coming

Thursday, February 26th, 2009
2009 Mobile World Congress

Steve Ballmer

After months of speculation and rumors about a new Microsoft smartphone, and months of Microsoft denying said speculation and rumors, Steve Ballmer finally made it clear that Microsoft will not release a smartphone.

Seems like a smart move as I really don’t hear a lot of people clamoring for one. Even so, many analysts and bloggers expected a 2009 release to compete with RIM/BlackBerry and Apple/iPhone.

Apple still has the device to beat and Ballmer seems to be happy to let them keep the current “mojo” in the consumer market. Ballmer’s strategy is to continue to build upon the Windows Mobile (actually now Windows Phones) platform and make it as compatible with as many devices as possible. Though not unique, this strategy is very different from Apple’s and RIM’s, whereby they both have a proprietary device and proprietary operating system. Stirring it up even more, Palm recently announced the Pre as well as a new mobile platform called webOS.

Historically, the proprietary device/OS strategy has worked for many mobile phone providers, but I believe this may be changing. From a business user’s perspective (me), the real value in “smartdevices” comes from the business applications (increasing productivity and reducing costs) that run on it. Highly restrictive access to the OS or having to develop across an endless sea of proprietary platforms makes it difficult for mobile application companies to create solutions that can run on every device. 

I would personally like to see a handful of the best OS platforms be able to run across all the devices – and carrier networks. But I won’t hold my breath just yet.

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The Pendulum of Business and Consumer Applications

Monday, February 23rd, 2009

Those who have been in the mobile applications business since the PDA days have experienced the innovation and buying cycles many times.  When we were at Palm’s first developers conference in 1997, a majority of the attendees were developing the next biggest game beyond backgammon.  Individual or consumer based applications were a big hit until wireless data networks started working on PDAs.  The industry forgot about games and rushed to the new frontier, business applications.  The color screen was then announced, and a new wave of games and consumer apps flooded the market.  Then the ability to synchronize email shifted industry focus back to the high ARPU promises of the small and medium sized businesses and the Fortune 1000. 

Today, there are hundreds of thousands of ring tones, games, and personal applications in the market and it seems the industry has forgotten the business customer once again.  The demands of the commercial market in each of these cycles is always lagging as the business customer has higher standards (security, version control etc.) and demands some ROI for the investment.  With 100’s of millions of new Smartphone owners, the pendulum will be swinging back to the interests of the business user, and maybe sooner than we think.   ABI Research just announced that 16.5% of surveyed Smartphone users spent between $100 and $499 on applications.

That seems like an awful lot of ring tones and $1 games from the app store.  Something else is going on.  Stay tuned.

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Crossing Over…

Tuesday, February 17th, 2009

mobileworldcongressI just read an article in my inbox from Fierce Developer.  The article was discussing what is hot at Mobile World Congress, which is going on this week in Barcelona.  So what is the big topic of conversation there?  Not surprisingly it’s app stores.  Just look at the landscape today.  We have the iPhone App Store and Android Market already.  Add to that announcments from RIM (BlackBerry), Microsoft, Palm, Nokia, and LG, and you can see how quickly the whole concept is proliferating.

At the core, both economics and a desire to control the user experience with the mobile devices are driving the handset makers to offer these stores.  What I think is more interesting though is that we are at a tipping point with mobile devices.  Our mobile phones are starting to cross over from “just phones” to devices that are more PC-like.  The whole concept of the app store is facilitating that change.  The stores offer more than just ring tones.  Granted, much of what they offer today is along the lines of games, or other types of applications to keep us entertained waiting on a flight, or waiting on our friends to pick us up.  But more is coming, including more business applications.

The app stores open up a market for developers much, much larger than they could access with their own resources.  This helps drive creativity, because there is actually a place to display your wares once you have taken the time to develop them.  The more applications that are available, the more useful our phones can be, and the more like computers they become.  The more capable the phones become, the more application developers can do with them.  It’s a circle that feeds on itself.  I don’t think mobile phones have completely crossed over yet, but I do think we are witnessing that cross over occur before our eyes.

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The Application of Mobile Technology…Where Are We Going?

Wednesday, February 4th, 2009

Yesterday in our senior staff meeting we were discussing some trends that are influencing the direction of the mobile industry. In that discussion we talked about some predictive statements from previous computer industry giants. The first quote was attributed to Thomas Watson Jr. in the 1950’s. Watson was then-Chairman of IBM, and the quote attributed to him was “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers”. While this appears to be a misquote according to IBM, he did make a reference at the 1953 shareholder meeting about receiving 18 computer orders nationwide, when IBM had expected to sell only 5. The second statement is a well known quote from Bill Gates where he stated “640kb ought to be enough for anybody”. The point behind both of these statements is that it is difficult even for industry visionaries to predict the real potential of emerging technology. It is not unusual to underestimate its impact.

When I got back to my office I saw the Weekly Edition of the “Mobilizer Newsletter” in my Inbox. This newsletter is produced by “Mobile Enterprise Weekly, and this week it has an article from 8 mobile industry experts discussing “The Next Big Thing in Enterprise Mobility”. While I do not personally know any of the people who are quoted in the article, and I am sure each of them is an expert in his/her perspective field, I do have a couple of my own observations after reading the article.

My first observation is that the 8 experts who provided input for the article all talked about different technologies they each thought would be “the next big thing”. Not one of them agreed with any of the others. That’s not really surprising when you consider the statements from Watson and Gates. When we are in the middle of the revolution, it is very hard to see where we are going. And we are definitely in the middle of a mobile revolution.ocarina1

The second observation is that where mobility is really going is likely far more amazing than what we can imagine right now. Have you seen the iPhone application called “Ocarina” by Smule? It turns the iPhone into an electronic ocarina (a musical instrument dating back 12,000 years according to Wikipedia). By holding your iPhone horizontal, placing your fingers over 4 “holes” on the multi-touch screen, and blowing into the microphone with varying intensity, you can play a variety of songs. The application can even vary the tonal quality by tilting the iPhone at various angles. If you like music, you should check it out. I think you’ll be amazed. Who would have thought a year ago that the iPhone could become a musical instrument, and not just an mp3 player?

Ocarina sounds interesting for sharing with your friends and passing the time in an airport, but it isn’t going to help us in the business world. So what is the next big thing with mobile business applications? I’m going to disappoint you here. I don’t know. I could take a guess like other experts, but likely the best I could do is be partially right. But there is hope. I may not know what the next great business application is, but I do know how to find it, and that’s almost as good as knowing what it is.

Here’s the challenge: we need to do a better job of getting mobile applications into the hands of business people. And not just in big corporations, but in small and medium sized businesses too. After all, the smaller companies account for the majority of jobs in our nation, and therefore represent by far the largest pool of mobile business users. While mobile technology has proliferated for personal use, it’s really just getting going for business use outside of email, so the opportunity is enormous. When we get more mobile technology into the hands of businesses, they will figure out ways to use the technology that the experts never dreamed of. That’s the real key to the next big thing in business mobility.

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U.S. Wireless Industry ‘Recession Proof’?

Thursday, January 29th, 2009

Finally, some forecast data is appearing in the public media that is quantifying what we are seeing everyday within our customers and prospects.  We are all now hooked on wireless data.  We are  just beginning to see the potential of what it can do for a businesses large and small while also improving our quality of life. 

A recent Mobile Enterprise Magazine report indicates that the U.S. wireless industry will continue to grow despite gloomy economic conditions.  Citing the Strategy Analytics Wireless Network Strategies service report, “US Wireless Market Outlook: 2009 Key Trends,” predicts that US cellular subscriber growth will remain strong despite the economic situation, although growth levels will scale back slightly from 2008. US cellular service revenues will also continue to grow, albeit at a slower growth rate of 3.9%, down from 7.5% in 2008.

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